Since the government's announcement of the beginning of progressive deconfinement on 11 May, the debate on the relevance of this choice has been animating the days of our fellow citizens. The key question is to what extent it will have an impact on an upsurge in the number of cases and therefore the number of deaths.

We are inspired by the approach of the MIT [1] which is assessing the impact of deconfinement in the USA and have submitted a scientific paper on the same platform. Our publication stands out because it presents a work enriched with additional data and parameters to take advantage of lessons from other countries that have already started deconfinement or have had no containment at all. Furthermore, due to the lack of testing in France, we consider that the number of deaths is a more reliable measure than the number of officially contaminated people, as the latter is underestimated according to government sources and the Institut Pasteur (6% of infected people represents approximately 4 million people versus 160,000 people who tested positive, so the real figure is largely underestimated).

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